As the National Hunt season is slowly coming to an end (finally), we can look forward to the proper stuff and with the Doncaster Lincoln meeting less than a month away, this is the perfect time to look forward to the flat season.

The Newmarket Guineas

Firstly, the obvious starting point is the important classic markers. Bow Echo heads the betting for the Colts in the 2000 Guineas, trained by George Boughey and Precise, the dual group one winner at two years old, with course form at Newmarket, heads the market at around the 3/1 mark for Aidan O’Brien.

Pictured above is one of many Aidan O’Brien 2000 Guineas winners, Gleneagles. This son of Galileo was both an English 2000 Guineas winner and Irish.

Precise has clear credentials to be clear favourite for the 1000 Guineas, however, the colts race is way more wide open with it being 10/1 the field at the time of writing.

Gstaad, who is close to the top of the betting was a knockout winner of the Coventry stakes before being second three times over 6/7f. On his first attempt at the mile, he won the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He is a very impressive colt, who covers plenty of ground with his impressive stride frequency of 24.82 combined with his stride per second average of 2.31.

Being related to the classy Vandeek, it comes of no shock to see the raw speed he has. Alike with the fillies mile winner, he is a son of Starspangledbanner.

Waiting in the wings is Charlie Appleby’s Colt named Hidden Force, who is very progressive. He won a Kempton conditions race which has produced 2024’s 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech and Opera Ballo, who won the Group 1 Jebel Hatta and was consistent throughout last years campaign. The key here is that all the runners are Godolphin/Appleby trained and owned, meaning that this is a race they target with good ones. This is further backed up with the timing data showing he clocked a 11:09 between the two furlong pole and the one furlong pole. His finishing percentage of 108% shows a positive change of gears for the race at Newmarket meaning that he can track pace handily enough and conserve energy.

As trainers are creatures of habit, it can pay dividends to follow their race planning. This can be seen with Appleby running Talk Of New York in the Jumeriah 2000 Guineas in Meydan. This is the same race the ill-fated Ruling Court won on his way to winning the Newmarket 2000 Guineas. Likewise with the prior mentioned Hidden Force, this horse has only been seen around Kempton so far. He showed a superb turn of foot to put the race to bed at the two pole clocking a sub 11 second furlong on his way.

The Middle Distance Classics

The betting for the Epsom Derby shows that Aidan O’Brien may have a chokehold on the race, with him training the first nine in the betting. Heading the market and the most-likely to start favourite now would be Pierre Bonnard at around the 6/1 mark. He was last seen winning the Criterium de Saint-Cloud over 1m2f at two years old. This colt is out of Camelot, who won both the Epsom and Irish derby and was just touched off in the St Leger at Doncaster. His pedigree suggests he is pure staying power and is also closely related to a useful filly named Crepe Suzette.

Morshdi, a York maiden winner on his second start, is an interesting entrant into the derby. His maiden victory reads well, beating a useful type in Arabian Desert, who went on to be placed in the Horris Hill Stakes at Newbury. His stride doesn’t scream middle-distance at first glance, but his full sister, Nakheel stayed 14 furlongs with a similar stride. I’d also expect his stride to flatten out with age. He took out the Fielden Stakes at Newmarket, showing plenty of grit and can go on from here with his trainer not yet hitting peak form.

The Oaks is a field with many potential improvers, plenty of unexposed types looking to improve. One of these would be the Godolphin owned Abashiri. This filly did her best work late at Kempton Park, looking for an out between the 3f and 2f pole and then putting them to the sword. She would definitely be of interest if she was to turn up at York for the Musidora Stakes in May.

K Sarra is a filly for last years’ Dante winning connections, Pride Of Arras, who is also a full sister to K Sarra. This filly has a huge amount of ability and is sure to improve for a trainer who has already had success in the Oaks twice. With the owner/breeders Mrs & Mr David Ackroyd being from Yorkshire, it would not be a shock for this filly to turn up in the Musidora at York in the spring.

Racing Post journalist Joel Rees, gave some insight as to who he expects to progress this season.

Handicappers

The amount of progression that can be factored into horses turning three years old can be difficult to calculate as they now unlock the ability to be running over 1m4f. Sir Mark Prescott has a track record of horses showing significant improvement from entering handicapping divisions, like his progressive stayer last year, Pendragon.

One of the most interesting handicaps to keep an eye on for the year is the Melrose. The Melrose is a 1m6f handicap run at York during the Ebor Festival. This is a very competitive handicap which can throw up indicators to future group level stayers.

Masked Warrior was a huge eyecatcher as a two-year-old on his final start at Nottingham in the Golden Horn maiden stakes. This race is prone to throw a good one, with recently, Laafi for Masked Warrior’s trainer, William Haggas. Laafi on his last start for Haggas won the November handicap at Doncaster. In 2020, Adayar won this maiden. Masked Warrior is a recently gelded son of New Bay out of a Golden Horn mare, for Golden Horn’s race owner, A E Oppenheimer.

He looks tailor-made for a stiffer test in time given his mother was listed-placed in the Galtres at York over 1m4f. Haggas has a great record in the Melrose handicap with 3 winners from 13 runners. This would not be a shock to see Masked Warrior at York in August.

Ed Walker trained, Quilt, looks to be a sure improver for tackling a trip. This filly has an opening mark of 68, which looks workable given the improvement she could see entering middle distance handicaps. Her half sister, Safety Catch, showed her ability as a three-year-old towards the back end of the campaign winning a listed race. The mother was also a 1m5f winner. This filly was handicapped in just over a month and improved with each run.

I would expect Quilt to show her true ability when tackling 1m4f or more. Despite her low rating at the moment, she could be a type to end up in the Galtres at York.

With a view to Royal Ascot, Monarch’s Gold has been applying his trade over 6f, with two wins so far. He should make a strong stayer at a mile this year looking at his pedigree. Out of a Mastercraftsman mare, who’s thrown two 100 plus racing post rated horses over a mile, it would not be a shock to see significant improvement from this colt when he gets to the turf. His mark of 92 would get him into the Britannia comfortably around the bottom of the weights.

This colt could end up proving to be the best of the family so far with his wins to date being over an inadequate trip and showing class to win.

These are a few horses to follow throughout the 2026 flat season which have potential upside. Lets hope for a great three-year-old crop to ignite the early season!